Australian Broker Call

Citi rates BAP as Neutral (3) -

While Bapcor delivered a weaker than anticipated first half, with net profits down -11% on consensus expectations, the result was largely consistent with downside risk recently flagged by Citi. 

As per the broker, there may be execution issues needing to be addressed within the retail business, given the relative underperformance to key peers.

Citi has lowered its full year net profit forecasts by -8% following the result, as well as FY25 and FY26 forecasts -10% on higher costs.

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $6.08 from $6.40.

Target price is $6.08 Current Price is $5.58 Difference: $0.5
If BAP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.29, suggesting upside of 14.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BAP as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

Bapcor's 1H trading update was overall in line with consensus expectations, according to Morgans. While earnings (EBITDA) in Retail were down -13% on the previous corresponding period, they were in line with the broker's forecast.

Regarding the multi-year transformation program, management reconfirmed Better-than-Before (BTB) targets for the 2H.

Despite the broker's lower EPS forecasts over FY24-26 and target price of $6.60, down from $6.95, the rating is upgraded to Add from Hold on valuation and potential earnings upside in FY25. 

Target price is $6.60 Current Price is $5.58 Difference: $1.02
If BAP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.29, suggesting upside of 14.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BAP as Hold (3) -

As a result of lower-than-expected sales and cost inflation in the 1H, management at Bapcor is guiding to a -13-15% decline in 1H profit to between $53-54m, around -5% below Ord Minnett's forecast, and nearly -10% below consensus.

The sales result reflects subdued trading across the Trade, Wholesale and New Zealand operations, explain the analysts, while the Retail performance remains weak.

The overall trading performance highlights the broker's near-term concern around market share losses across key business units.

The Hold rating is maintained and the target is decreased to $6.10 from $6.40.

Target price is $6.10 Current Price is $5.58 Difference: $0.52
If BAP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.29, suggesting upside of 14.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BAP as Neutral (3) -

Bapcor has guided to first half net profits of $53-54m, down -8% on UBS's expectations. The broker explains a large part of the miss can be attributed to higher than expected interest expenses and corporate overhead costs. 

The company intends to further cut business as usual costs in the second half, which, in UBS's opinion, indicates underlying operating expenditure inflation and challenging trading conditions may persist near-term. 

The broker remains cautious on potential price increases that can be pushed through. The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $6.10 from $7.20.

Target price is $6.10 Current Price is $5.58 Difference: $0.52
If BAP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.29, suggesting upside of 14.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates BCB as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Following Bowen Coking Coal's 2Q activities report, Shaw and Partners notes better-than-expected operating cash flow, despite shipments being impacted by heavy rain.

Rain is still impacting in January, causing management to trim FY24 guidance for the Burton Complex. Run-of-mine production is now expected to be 2.3-2.6t, down from 2.5-2.8mt.

The broker had forecast a quarter-ending balance of $41m for cash on hand, and $70m was reported, as operating cash flow was $10m better-than-expected and capex was -$15m less.

The Buy, High Risk rating is retained and the target falls to 23c from 27c.

Target price is $0.23 Current Price is $0.07 Difference: $0.163
If BCB meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 243% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BGL as Outperform (1) -

Bellevue Gold's ramp-up produced half the gold Macquarie anticipated in the Dec Q while second half production guidance is also below estimate. The plan to move to higher-grade areas and growing stoping volumes over the remainder of FY24 will be key to the ramp-up.

The miner ended the quarter with more net debt than assumed but Macquarie suspects Bellevue is at, or at least close to, peak debt.

The moderate slowing of the broker's mining ramp-up assumption and assumed longer-term costs lead to a target price cut to $1.90 from $2.10, Outperform retained.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.37 Difference: $0.535
If BGL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates BKT as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Black Rock Mining's 2Q results showed a quarter-ending balance of $5.2m in cash, highlights Shaw and Partners, without commenting further.

Management still expects credit approvals from potential lenders in the near-term, and once approved, will  seek to negotiate and execute full form facility agreements with lenders, explains the broker.

The Buy, High Risk rating and target price of 46 cents are retained.

Target price is $0.46 Current Price is $0.06 Difference: $0.396
If BKT meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 619% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BPT as Accumulate (2) -

Higher Otway and Cooper basin production for Beach Energy in the 2Q were more than offset by the impact of downtime at the Kupe and Lang Lang operations, explains Ord Minnett. Total production was 4.3mmboe equivalent compared to the broker's estimate for 4.5mmboe.

Despite the production miss, the analyst points out 2Q revenue unexpectedly jumped by 37% due to higher-than-anticipated prices for most commodities. Beach also sold its first Waitsia LNG cargo, as well as a (one-off) condensate cargo.

The broker highlights the potential benefit once Waitsia LNG sales really get going. The Accumulate rating and $2.50 target are unchanged.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $1.63 Difference: $0.875
If BPT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 54% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.80, suggesting upside of 11.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BPT as Buy (1) -

Beach Energy has reported a sizeable 36% beat to consensus sales revenue expectations, largely on its decision to lift an early LNG cargo.

UBS does not expect further LNG cargoes from Beach Energy ahead of the commissioning of Waitsia stage 2, but does feel the favourable pricing of this cargo provides an encouraging reference point.

The company has tightened full year guidance, narrowing production to 18-20m barrels of oil equivalent from a previous 18-21m barrels, and capital expenditure to $0.9-1.0bn from a previous $0.85-1.0bn.

The Buy rating and target price of $1.90 are retained.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.63 Difference: $0.275
If BPT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.80, suggesting upside of 11.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CXL as Speculative Buy (1) -

Heidelberg Materials has decided to relocate Calix's low emissions intensity lime and cement (LEILAC) project, which will end residue from burnt coal (clinker) production at the Hanover site in Germany.

While this update is not ideal, as it will involve an additional six months of engineering work due to the relocation, Bell Potter reminds investors Calix can still progress the other industrial applications of the LEILAC kiln.

The Speculative Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $5.10 from $7.25 on a greater risk discount applied to the broker's LEILAC valuation, and a higher assumed weighted average cost of capital (WACC).

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $1.83 Difference: $3.275
If CXL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 179% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates CXL as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners forecasts a delay of around 6-12 months to the LEILAC-2 project as Heidelberg Materials has decided to end clinker
production at its Hanover cement plant, and operations will be moved to another site.

Hiedelberg cited a “substantial decline in cement sales following weak construction demand in Germany...and stronger alignment of the company’s cement portfolio towards low-carbon products, leading to the production of cement with reduced clinker content.”

The broker maintains its Buy rating and target price of $6.00.

The analyst sees deep value in the Calix share price as the social and economic costs of carbon emissions remain large, despite an around -30% fall over the past six months for the EU Carbon Permits price.

The Permits price is around 90% correlated to the Calix share price, explains Shaw.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $1.83 Difference: $4.175
If CXL meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 229% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates DGL as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter believes the share price of chemicals and logistics company DGL Group still incorporates market pessimism related to prospects for an El Nino drought, despite the event not materialising.

In the ag-chem space, the company's shares are also trading at the widest valuation gap to Elders ((ELD)) since DGL Group listed in May of 2021, note the analysts.

The broker materially lifts its EPS forecasts across FY24-26 and the target rises to $1.20 from $1.00. Buy.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.88 Difference: $0.325
If DGL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.06, suggesting upside of 13.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates DVP as Buy (1) -

After reviewing the December quarterly activities report, Bell Potter assesses Develop Global is on track to meet its FY24 revenue guidance of $130m.

This current quarter, the broker lists several major catalysts including an update to the mineral resource estimate at Woodlawn and an updated scoping study at Pioneer Dome. The Woodlawn operations are expected to restart by early-2025.

The Buy rating and $4.30 target are unchanged.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $2.44 Difference: $1.86
If DVP meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 76% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates FDV as Speculative Buy (1) -

While making no changes to forecasts, following a 4Q update by Frontier Digital Ventures, Bell Potter admires the resulting 37% year-on-year increase in operating earnings (EBITDA).

The company achieved this outcome despite a -5% decline in operating revenues, points out the broker, driven by difficult conditions in Pakistan for equity-accounted Zameen.

The analysts highlight Frontier was free cash flow positive in Q4, and finished 2023 with net cash of $15.2m following full year positive net operating cash flows of $2.2m.

The Speculative Buy rating and target price of 74 cents are retained.

Target price is $0.74 Current Price is $0.48 Difference: $0.26
If FDV meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 54% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates FDV as Add (1) -

Morgans believes the -13% drop in 4Q revenue on the previous corresponding period for Frontier Digital Ventures masked a relatively robust performance for most businesses, apart from Zameen in Pakistan.

The 4Q group earnings (EBITDA) margin of 10% was down on the 11% achieved in the prior quarter.

The broker makes only minor forecast changes and the Add rating and 77c target are maintained. The timing is uncertain, but the analyst suggests a solid uplift in Zameen revenue growth rates is probably the key stock price catalyst.

Target price is $0.77 Current Price is $0.48 Difference: $0.29
If FDV meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 60% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GOR as Neutral (3) -

Most of Gold Road Resources' Dec Q metrics had been pre-released and were quite a (negative) shock to Macquarie at the time. Yesterday's report included 2024 guidance that was much softer than the broker anticipated, and weaker than earlier commentary.

Production guidance of 300-335koz at a cost of $1900-2050/oz compares to Macquarie's prior forecast of 361koz at $1578/oz.

The broker has notionally softened its long-term outlook at Gruyere on the back of recent operating cost, strip ratio and throughput commentary from management leading to outer year earnings forecast downgrades.

Target fall to $1.60 from $2.00, Outperform retained.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.40 Difference: $0.205
If GOR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.86, suggesting upside of 21.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GOR as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Labour availability issues (with the mining contractor) in the 4Q delayed access to higher grade ore from the Gruyere open pit, explains Ord Minnett, which resulted in increased use of lower-grade stockpiles.

The above negative for Gold Road Resources, combined with inflationary pressures, will have a greater impact on 2024 than the broker originally anticipated. Management is guiding to 150-167.5koz at a cost (AISC) of between $1,900-2,050/oz.

The analyst's target falls to $1.80 from $2.10, though the Buy, Higher Risk rating is unchanged on high margin, long-mine-life appeal.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.40 Difference: $0.405
If GOR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.86, suggesting upside of 21.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GOR as Buy (1) -

UBS was left disappointed by the pre-release of Gold Road Resources' December quarter earlier in January, with the company suggesting production of 74,700 ounces at $1,973 per ounce. 

Gold Road Resources has acknowledged the labour issues impacting on the December quarter have left the company with ground to make up. Reduced access to high grade ore will see mill feed diluted with lower grade stockpiles through the remainder of the year.

The company is guiding to full year production of 300,000-335,000 ounces, -15% below UBS's expectations.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $2.00 from $2.20.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.40 Difference: $0.605
If GOR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.86, suggesting upside of 21.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IGO as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

A shift to lagged monthly lithium pricing from lagged quarterly lithium pricing will see IGO's Greenbushes offtake sell at closer to spot pricing.

For the March quarter, Citi now anticipates a realised price of US$1,007 per tonne, compared to the US$2,984 per tonne achieved in the December quarter. The broker expects the bulk of asset earnings downgrades from the company for the financial year are done.

The broker highlights the decision to continue building inventory does reduce profits for Greenbushes in the present, but should see IGO with 50,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent in inventory by mid-2024. 

The rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral and the target price of $8.90 is retained.

Target price is $8.90 Current Price is $7.60 Difference: $1.3
If IGO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.13, suggesting upside of 18.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IGO as Outperform (1) -

IGO's quarterly report revealed the pricing mechanism for Greenbushes spodumene sales prices has been changed from quarterly to monthly lag, Macquarie notes, reducing complexities.

Greenbushes FY24 production guidance is revised down -7% as JV partners indicate volume requirements for the second half.

Macquarie expects Greenbushes' second half sales to be -20% lower than production, leading to inventory build, which the broker forecasts will unwind in FY25.

Target falls to $9.90 from $10.00, Outperform retained.

Target price is $9.90 Current Price is $7.60 Difference: $2.3
If IGO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.13, suggesting upside of 18.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IGO as Buy (1) -

Changes to forecasts for IGO's Greenbushes mine were largely in line with UBS's expectations, but with the broker yet to factor these assumptions into its forecasts the announcement drives an -11% decrease to its full year earnings forecast. 

As of the beginning of 2024, pricing for Greenbushes will be reset monthly, based on the average of four price reporting agencies in the previous month. 

The broker assumes the mine will lift its inventory to 205,000 tonnnes of lithium concentrate by end of June, removing -40,000 tonnes from the market. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $9.50 from $10.50.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $7.60 Difference: $1.9
If IGO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.13, suggesting upside of 18.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates KAR as Buy (1) -

The timing of cargoes from Bauna was a spanner in the works for Karoon Energy's otherwise largely in-line December quarter result, says Citi. 

The company reported sales of 2.56m barrels of oil equivalent, a -12% miss to the broker's expectations, and driving revenue of US$209m, down -10% on the broker's estimate, with realised pricing slightly offsetting the lower Bauna sales. 

Citi notes the cargoes from Bauna should normalise in coming periods.

The Buy rating and target price of $3.25 are retained.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $1.96 Difference: $1.295
If KAR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 66% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.76, suggesting upside of 43.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates KAR as Outperform (1) -

Karoon Energy's December quarter production and revenue were both broadly in line with Macquarie's estimates.

Well issues have "unfortunately" disrupted 2024 production at Bauna but Who Dat production, after only eleven days of ownership, is in line, the broker notes.

The recent downgrade to Brazil production guidance for 2024, with a well offline, defers revenues. Outperform and $2.60 target retained.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $1.96 Difference: $0.645
If KAR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.76, suggesting upside of 43.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates KAR as Add (1) -

Following in-line operational and sales results for Karoon Energy in the 2Q, despite volumes being impacted at Bauna in Brazil, Morgans retains its Add rating and $2.80 target price.

Bauna exceeded the midpoint of the production guidance range, notes the broker, even though there was a hydrate issue and subsequent mechanical failure at one of the wells.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $1.96 Difference: $0.845
If KAR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.76, suggesting upside of 43.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MDR as No Rating (-1) -

While offering no 12-month target or rating for MedAdvisor, Morgans is keeping tabs on the company's progress.

The company aims to simplify the way patients manage their medication, via a free platform and app, explains the broker. Free as long as their local pharmacy subscribes ($189/month) to the OnePlus pharmacy software allowing receipt and processing of medication orders.

In the US, the company's Adheris Health business is focused on patient engagement and compliance, notes the analyst.

According to Morgans, consensus is expecting revenue growth over FY24-26 of 15%, 13% and 7%, respectively, with profitability attained in FY25.

Current Price is $0.28. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NWL as Neutral (3) -

Net flows picked up over the second quarter for Netwealth Group, as Citi had anticipated, leading to a quarterly result that met the broker's expectations but exceeded consensus.

While in flows were up 20% year-on-year, for the broker it was a reduction in outflows that was a key positive for the period, with outflows down -13% quarter-on-quarter, leaving the company to report net flows of $2,586m. 

Despite the positives, the broker sees potential for minor earnings downgrades due to a lower cash balance.

The Neutral rating and target price of $16.10 are retained.

Target price is $16.10 Current Price is $17.34 Difference: minus $1.24 (current price is over target).
If NWL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.23, suggesting downside of -1.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NWL as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

Netwealth Group's Dec Q custodial net inflows of $2.6bn were ahead of Macquarie's expectations of $2.0bn. Market movements of positive $3.4bn (up 4.7%) were a tailwind.

Gross outflows continued to moderate and are now closer to trend levels, the broker notes.

The percentage of cash balances held has continued to decline, lured away by term deposit rates. Netwealth has announced measures to offset this, but Macquarie suggests higher rates and improved equity market sentiment will likely keep cash at lower levels.

Improved flows and market movements see the target rise to $14.80 from $14.20. But with the stock "priced for perfection", downgrade to Underperform from Neutral.

Target price is $14.80 Current Price is $17.34 Difference: minus $2.54 (current price is over target).
If NWL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.23, suggesting downside of -1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NWL as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Following a higher than expected 2Q funds under management (FUM) number for Netwealth Group, Ord Minnett raises its target to $16.50 from $14.70. FUA (administration) at the end of the period of $78.0bn marked an 8.4% rise over the quarter.

In a sign the threat posed by term deposits is easing, suggests the broker, gross outflows fell and gross inflows increased.

However, the group's valuation is now considered demanding following recent share price appreciation, and the broker's rating is downgraded to Hold from Accumulate.

Target price is $16.50 Current Price is $17.34 Difference: minus $0.84 (current price is over target).
If NWL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.23, suggesting downside of -1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORG as Outperform (1) -

The focus in the first half, Macquarie believes, is whether Origin Energy will be in a position to adjust its dividend payout policy from 30-50% of free cash flow to a higher, possibly 50-75% range.

With a franking balance of $0.39, the broker sees a potential surprise of a materially higher dividend in FY24, well ahead of consensus at $0.43ps.

Outperform and $9.26 target retained.

Target price is $9.26 Current Price is $8.32 Difference: $0.94
If ORG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.80, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PPT as Neutral (3) -

Having already marked to market Perpetual's assets under management, Citi was left disappointed by the reported $213.9bn in assets under management at the end of 2023.

The company reported second quarter outflows of -$4.3bn, noting Morningstar has suggested quarterly equity fund flows industry-wide are the worst in fifteen years.

The company has pushed its cost growth guidance to the upper end of the previous range, partly on reclassification of Pendal revenue and costs. 

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $26.30 from $27.55.

Target price is $26.30 Current Price is $25.66 Difference: $0.64
If PPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.79, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PPT as No Rating (-1) -

Perpetual's Dec Q net outflows exceeded Macquarie's estimate and remain volatile. Positive market movements were partially offset by FX.

Expense guidance, including Pendal amalgamation, are unchanged, but expected to be at the top end of guidance. The -$80m quantum of synergies expected is unchanged, but realising faster, the broker notes.

Earnings forecasts fall as increased net outflows, FX movements and higher interest expenses are partially offset by positive market movements.

The broker is on research restriction.

Current Price is $25.66. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $26.79, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RMD as Buy (1) -

In what Citi expects will be a positive for ResMed, competitor Philips has announced it has come to agreement with the US Department of Justice on terms for a consent decree that will see the company temporarily unable to sell sleep and respiratory devices in the US. 

Philips will be unable to sell devices until the requirements of the consent decree are met, but with full details unavailable it is unclear how long this could take. The company can continue to sell masks in the US, and its full range of devices outside of the US.

With a lack of further details, Citi assumes Philips' return to the US device market will be pushed out from the broker's previously expected mid-year re-entry.

The Buy rating and target price of $34.00 are retained.

Target price is $34.00 Current Price is $28.44 Difference: $5.56
If RMD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.04, suggesting upside of 14.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SDR as Buy (1) -

After today revealing in-line 2Q revenue, SiteMinder is on target to achieve Citi's FY24 revenue forecasts. First half revenue of $91.7m was a slight beat against forecasts by the analyst and consensus.

In an initial assessment, the broker notes both underlying cash burn and property growth missed forecasts, though the latter was in line with the consensus estimate. Citi attributes one-off churn of 200 covid quarantine properties for its property growth miss.

The broker sees potential for the share price to underperform today due to the property growth number and underlying free cash flow (FCF) of -$5.2m in the 2Q, compared to Citi's -$4.6m estimate.

Additionally, the broker observes, shares have performed strongly over the last few months. Target $5.70. Buy.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $5.54 Difference: $0.16
If SDR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.82, suggesting upside of 5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates STG as Speculative Buy (1) -

Straker's 3Q revenues grew by 3.5% quarter-on-quarter, with management noting trading conditions were stabilising. Ord Minnett, however, believes 4Q revenues will be insufficient to meet its FY24 forecast and management guidance.

Offering some solace for investors, the analyst highlights all-time-high gross margins in the 3Q, largely due to the recently announced higher-margin offering of managed services.

The broker moderates its revenue forecasts and the target price decreases to 86c from 90c. Speculative Buy.

Target price is $0.86 Current Price is $0.50 Difference: $0.36
If STG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 72% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates STO as Buy (1) -

An in-line December quarter result from Santos, as per UBS, has allowed investors to focus on the de-risking of Barossa gas. The company recieved key regulatory approvals in recent weeks, allowing it to resume its full-scale development schedule. 

While one key environmental approval remains outstanding, the broker notes the approvals recieved remove some uncertainty that had been plaguing the stock and have allowed Santos to release revised guidance for Barossa, with first gas delayed only three months.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $9.15 from $8.90.

Target price is $9.15 Current Price is $7.80 Difference: $1.35
If STO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.44, suggesting upside of 22.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates STX as Speculative Buy (1) -

Strike Energy had its first full quarter of production (in December) at Walyering, highlights Bell Potter, and late in the quarter the company increased its ownership of the project to 100% from 55%, after completing the acquisition of Talon Energy ((TPD)).

The focus is now on next month's South Erregulla flow tests for wells SE2 and SE3, observes the analysts, and the subsequent 
independent resource and reserve updates.

The Speculative Buy rating is maintained and the target rises to 60c from 58c.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.44 Difference: $0.16
If STX meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.53, suggesting upside of 22.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates STX as Outperform (1) -

Strike Energy's Walyering field capacity has been demonstrated at more than 33TJ per day with the upstream plant and the reservoir performing well, but lower customer nominations due to seasonality and downstream issues from an oil pipe are weighing, Macquarie notes.

Reserves & resources updates are expected at Walyering and South Erregulla in the coming months.

The broker suggests the Walyering start-up and consolidation have been prudent, preparing Strike Energy for upcoming drilling and Erregulla project final investment decisions.

Outperform and 48c target retained.

Target price is $0.48 Current Price is $0.44 Difference: $0.04
If STX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.53, suggesting upside of 22.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates WEB as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners initiates research coverage on Webjet with a Buy rating given organic growth for WebBeds is expected to continue above the market level. Historically, average growth for the company has been 20-30%.

According to the broker, these growth rates will continue for two reasons: a consolidation of the bed bank market due to technology differentiation; and ongoing consolidation of travel partners in the wake of covid.

The broker also expects above market organic growth for the Online Travel Agency (OTA) segment.

Additionally, the upcoming Hotelbeds IPO provides a catalyst for upward re-rating of Webjet's share price, suggests Shaw. A target of $8.50 is set.

Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $7.36 Difference: $1.14
If WEB meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.45, suggesting upside of 14.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WOW as Buy (1) -

Woolworths Group has guided to first half earnings of $1,682-1,699m, with the New Zealand operations expected to report first half earning of NZ$71m.

As per Citi, guidance suggests improved performance in the Australian business. While weakness in the New Zealand had been previously flagged, the extent of underperformance was deeper than the broker had anticipated, and calls into question long-term margin prospects.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $42.00 from $43.00.

Target price is $42.00 Current Price is $36.19 Difference: $5.81
If WOW meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.83, suggesting upside of 2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WOW as Neutral (3) -

Woolworths has taken a -NZ$1.6bn goodwill impairment on its NZ business, warning that first half earnings will be lower than consensus forecasts.

The company is also changing accounting treatment of its Endeavour Group ((EDV)) shareholding, resulting in a mark-to-market loss of -$209m.

Meanwhile, underlying trading in Australian Food and B2B divisions are tracking well, in line with Macquarie's expectations.

The broker has made minor forecast downgrades on NZ earnings. Neutral and $37 target retained.

Target price is $37.00 Current Price is $36.19 Difference: $0.81
If WOW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.83, suggesting upside of 2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WOW as Add (1) -

Woolworths Group's guidance for 1H underlying earnings (EBIT) was a miss against forecasts by Morgans and consensus of -2% and -1%, respectively. Overall, the company's 2Q trading update was weaker than the broker expected.

Management noted a more challenging half for New Zealand Food and BIG W, resulting in forecast downgrades by the broker for these two divisions over FY24-26, which only just exceeded forecast upgrades for Australian Food and Australian B2B.

Morgans' target falls to $39.45 from $39.90 and the Add rating is maintained.

First half results are due on February 21.

Target price is $39.45 Current Price is $36.19 Difference: $3.26
If WOW meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.83, suggesting upside of 2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WOW as Sell (5) -

While not impacting valuation, Ord Minnett suggests an impairment charge for Woolworths Group's small New Zealand business suggests a turnaround will take longer-than-anticipated.

Management cited a weaker medium-term market outlook as the reason for the impairment charge.

The Sell rating and target price of $27.50 are retained.

Target price is $27.50 Current Price is $36.19 Difference: minus $8.69 (current price is over target).
If WOW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $36.83, suggesting upside of 2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WOW as Buy (1) -

A first half trading update from Woolworths Group demonstrates ongoing challenges in New Zealand food trading, with the region looking to bring in NZ$71m in earnings for the period, a -42% decline year-on-year.

Group-wide, the company is expecting first half earnings of $1,682-1,699m, which UBS believes suggests a better than anticipated result for the Australian business.

The broker expects recent drivers, including product mix, ongoing efforts to manage promotional effectiveness, retail media growth, better stock loss management and productivity initiatives, to continue.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $40.50 from $42.00.

Target price is $40.50 Current Price is $36.19 Difference: $4.31
If WOW meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.83, suggesting upside of 2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources